Rebel Stakes 2016
- 35,000 – Attendance at the 2016 Rebel Stakes. $900,000 – Total purse of the race, with $540,000 of that reserved for the winner. $9,124,972 – Amount bet on Rebel Stakes day in 2016.
- Rebel Stakes Wow all the big guns are pointing to this race. Strong Mandate, Tapiture, Kobes Back, Bayern, Honor Code, Ride On Curlin. This race not should but will produce a very good and probally one fo the top 3 favorites for the kentucky derby after all is said and done.
The Rebel Stakes was elevated to grade two in 2008. The Arkansas Derby is grade one, and the Southwest Stakes is grade three. The purse for the 2016 Rebel Stakes was bumped to $900,000 following the previous year’s debut win of American Pharoah, who went on to win the 2015 Triple Crown. Cupid strikes in Oaklawn's Rebel and more inside the March 26, 2016 issue of Blood-Horse magazine. March 22, 2016 Baffert Claims Another Rebel Win With Cupid For the sixth time in seven years, Bob. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is No. 1 in Rebel Stakes victories, and his latest hope, Nadal, will break from post No. 1 in the $1 million Grade 2 race for 3-year-olds Saturday afternoon at.
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Discreetness the Secret Choice in Rebel Stakes 2016: Better stay quiet on this selection, because Discreetness will offer value on Saturday in the Rebel Stakes (GII) at Oaklawn Park. While he finished seventh in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) last month, the connections are not discouraged and he presses on towards the May 7 Kentucky Derby (GI) in this prep race.
Trained by William Fires and ridden by Jon Court, Discreetness has compiled a 3 for 5 record on dirt. Xpress Thoroughbreds owns the son of Discreet Cat. Fires believes a wide trip cost his colt last time.
“Bad trip,” Fires said, as seen in the Oaklawn Barn Notes. “He was outside all the way. Ran a sixteenth a mile farther than anybody.”
Indeed, the jockey seemed content to let the wide trip happen. Rather than go for a more aggressive strategy of laying close, or falling back behind the crowd, Discreetness broke from the 14th post position and stayed around the outside path approaching the first turn. At least six horses were inside him on the actual turn.
He continued to race wide throughout the early portion of the race and began to move nearing the second turn. Once he hit fifth place though, Discreetness’ rally hit a roadblock and he could not sustain the run.
Luna de Loco, who also ran wide around the first turn and ended up floundering, returned to win an local optional claiming race over a decent field which included the notable Rated R Superstar. Discreetness deserves the benefit of the doubt and might be able to turn the tables with a more inside post.
Besides Discreetness, a couple of horses can win the Rebel.
Starting from the rail, Creator comes into the race off a seven-length win in a local maiden race. The Tapit colt is trained by Steve Asmussen and owned by WinStar Farm. Jockey Ricardo Santana takes the mount again.
Next to him, Ralis makes his return after finishing 14th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). Whenever a Doug O’Neil-trained horse owned by Reddam Racing shows up, the public tends to overbet the horse. The switch from the outstanding Javier Castellano to Mario Gutierrez fails to make the contender appealing.
One spot right, Cupid makes the trip to Oaklawn for trainer Bob Baffert. He broke his maiden by over five lengths at Santa Anita Park in his initial route attempt. The connections paid a high price for this $900,000 son of Tapit.
A bit further out in the seventh slot, Creator’s stablemate Madtap goes for his third win out of six tries, as he tries to build on his six-length victory in a local optional claimer.
In the eighth post position, American Dubai attempts to keep the momentum going after a solid third in the Southwest. He endured the pace and kept on going, while Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore took advantage.
Whitmore, unfortunately for supporters, draws the 12th post position this time. He began from the second slot in the Southwest. Physically, he still gives the appearance of a horse more suited for sprinting.
To the right, Cherry Wine will need to overcome a wide trip as well. In January, the Dale Romans-trained runner won an optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park by six lengths.
Suddenbreakingnews starts from far outside. Jockey Luis Quinonez chose to take back in the Southwest, which allowed his mount to save ground (at least compared to Discreetness). The same strategy appears likely.
Obviously, there are not many wrong choices in the Rebel. In a large field without a huge superstar, it is a good idea to support a horse who offers value because the favorites are not a whole lot more talented. Discreetness, despite possessing the same ability as Suddenbreakingnews, will offer value and should be used in tickets.
Rebel Stakes 2016 Post Positions & Odds
Race 10 6:06 PM CT
1 1 Creator 6-1 Santana, Jr./Asmussen
1A 7 Madtap 6-1 Nakatani/Asmussen
2 9 Z Royal 20-1 Vazquez/Lukas
2X 10 Gray Sky 20-1 Geroux/Lukas
3 2 Ralis 12-1 Gutierrez/O’Neill
4 3 Cupid 7-2 Garcia/Baffert
5 4 Discreetness 12-1 Court/Fires
6 5 Siding Spring 20-1 Rocco, Jr./Casse
7 6 Spikes Shirl 30-1 Castanon/Stewart
8 8 American Dubai 12-1 Landeros/Richards
9 11 Cutacorner 30-1 Birzer/Van Berg
10 12 Whitmore 7-2 Ortiz, Jr./Moquett
11 13 Cherry Wine 12-1 Lanerie/Romans
12 14 Suddenbreakingnews 3-1 Quinonez/Von Hemel
A – Coupled Entries – 1 – Creator, 1A – Madtap B – Coupled Entries – 2 – Z Royal, 2X – Gray Sky
Equipment Changes: 9 – Z Royal – Blinkers off
Discreetness (6), ridden by Jon Court, slips past Gordy Florida (5) and jockey Glen Corbett to win the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs. Discreetness, a 9-1 long shot, passed Gordy Florida with a 16th of a mile to go. With the victory, he moved into eighth place in the Kentucky Derby standings.
Photo: Coady Photography
Trainer Bob Baffert’s Cupid led from flag fall to finish in the 2016 Rebel Stakes.
The Rebel Stakes has been one of the most telling Kentucky Derby preps in recent years and the 2016 edition was no different. The Bob Baffert-trained Cupid invaded and conquered, going from a maiden winner to a Grade II winner in 1:43.84 — in impressive wire-to-wire fashion.
Cupid’s win was reminiscent of Danzing Candy’s victory in last weekend’s San Felipe Stakes. He sped to the front, cut out solid early fractions, was given a breather and then spurted clear in the lane. However, I was much more impressed by Cupid’s win and believe him to be superior to Danzing Candy at this point.
Both ran very similar fractions in their respective preps, but don’t forget that Cupid ran these fractions at Oaklawn Park, not Santa Anita. Oaklawn is not nearly as fast of a track as Santa Anita and has proven to be quite dull this year. Oaklawn also has tighter turns, making it especially difficult to maintain the type of early pace that Cupid set. Yet, despite being used early and negotiating the tighter turns, Cupid still was able to hold off the stout late challenge of the Southwest runner-up, Whitmore.
The final time was also an impressive 1:43.84, which was faster than final time of the Azeri Stakes (1:44.44) and the Razorback Stakes (1:44.12). Both of those races are for older horses. This is especially significant because Cupid is only three years old. At this point in his career, he is the equivalent of an 18-year-old human, while Call Pat (Azeri winner) and Upstart (Razorback winner) are the equivalent to an athlete in their mid- to late-twenties. They have a significant developmental edge, yet Cupid still ran the faster than they did.
Figure makers also thought the win was an impressive one. The Beyer Speed Figure came back at 95, which is the fifth-highest earned by any three-year-old running beyond a mile. Brisnet designated the colt a lofty 99 and Equibase gave the race a 106.
Despite the impressiveness of the race, I still am left with questions, however.
Rebel Stakes 2020 Tv
Cupid’s pedigree does anything but scream “Kentucky Derby!” It is true that Tapit can sire distance horses, but, generally, he needs a mare that has a stamina-heavy pedigree. Pretty ‘N Smart does not have that type of pedigree. Her pedigree mingles a lot of speed with some stamina influences and, until Cupid came along, none of her offspring won beyond sprint distances.
Cupid does have the ability to rate, which should allow him to stretch his speed to nine furlongs, but the Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles (10 furlongs) remains a huge question mark.
A horse that had a bit of a disappointing result in the Rebel Stakes was Suddenbreakingnews, the Southwest Stakes winner. The pace set up was there for him to capitalize, but he was given a very questionable ride.
Starting from the far outside post, one has to wonder how he ended up on the inside of both Creator and Cherry Wine. With a big, gangly colt like Suddenbreakingnews you need to keep him in the clear, not on the inside, where he can run into traffic (like a tiring Ralis), causing him to stop cold and lose momentum.
By the time jockey Luis Quinonez finally took Suddenbreakingnews to the outside, there was too much left for him to do. Creator and Cherry Wine had the jump and were in full stride, while Whitmore and Cupid had spurted away. Despite this, Suddenbreakingnews ran on gamely, improving his position from seventh to fifth.
Hopefully, Quinonez learned his lesson. Keeping Suddenbreakingnews on the outside, in the clear, had led to a record of three wins and three seconds in six starts. His inside run on Saturday resulted in a fifth-place finish — and he was beaten nearly five lengths by the winner. In his next start, I hope to see Suddenbreakingnews kept to the outside, in the clear. That is how he runs best, and like the old adage says: “Don’t fix what isn’t broken.”
My final thought comes on the very unlucky Whitmore. This horse just has a knack for running into buzzsaw after buzzsaw. He has run two winning efforts, only to come home with a silver medal in both. He is as game as they come and continues to improve… without winning. Seeing that he will likely meet both Suddenbreakingnews and Cupid again, in the Arkansas Derby, it may be wise to point him to a softer race for his final prep. That tactic nearly worked for Firing Line last year and, after this latest beat, I think it could work for Whitmore.
Overall, the Rebel was a very revealing race. In my eyes, this was the best Kentucky Derby prep of 2016, thus far. There was a lot of talent and depth in the race — so much so, that that it wouldn’t surprise me to see some of the top finishers venture away from the competition, to other tracks, for their final preps.
Moving forward, I think the Rebel will be a key race in determining the Kentucky Derby winner, once again.