Betting Markets Oscars

The Oscars odds have been posted and as ever, there is potential value to be had if you know why Academy Awards betting is different to betting on traditional sports. Read on to find out how analysing previous Oscars odds and the other major awards can help you develop a profitable strategy.

• Betting Markets Ossoff
• Betting Markets Oscars Odds
• 2020 Oscar Betting Odds
• Betting Markets Oscars Today

With sports betting, bettors are accustomed to betting on markets with a massive amount of incomplete information in the form of the actual playing out of a game or match.

We know in advance who is playing, a team’s momentum, injury status on assorted players, and many other factors that help us estimate the probability of the likely outcomes. While there are plenty of indicators on which to base predictions, predictions just aren’t as good as a pre-formed resolution. The winners of the Oscars (also known as Acadamy Awards) are known before they are announced, but does that mean there is value on offer when it comes to Oscars betting?

For those of you looking to bet on the 2019 Oscars, I’m here to help. This post looks at the top Oscars betting sites, and the best Oscars bets to place. I’ve provided the latest odds for a number of the main betting markets. The Academy Awards are the biggest annual non-sports betting market in the gambling industry and with the nominations for the 2020 Oscars announced, the odds were quick to follow. There is really only one type of bet sportsbooks will offer on the Oscars. Each nominee in a category has moneyline odds that they will take home the award. The nominations for the 2020 Academy Awards.

Oscars betting: 92^nd Academy Awards odds

Why is Oscars betting different to sports betting?

Academy Awards betting differs from sports markets in that the results are based on predetermined information. Voters submit their votes long before the actual awards are presented (which takes place on February 9 this year). The markets were open as soon as nominations were announced on January 13 and while they stay open until the awards ceremony, the deciding votes are actually tallied almost a week before the event.

That gives bettors a month to look at the contenders, collect as much information as possible, and analyse historical patterns that will help inform any potential bets. It's a race against the market as bettors around the globe are chasing the same information in the name of getting ahead before prices adjust to information being assimilated.

It all makes for a fascinating game of cat and mouse, with potential profit available to bettors, but only if they strike at the right time. The question is: how do you win this game and get the best information possible?

How do winners’ odds behave?

It is worth noting that short favourites generally get shorter as the ceremony draws closer. In fact, in 2015 all ten markets offered saw the supportive information on eventual winners influence the market to make their prices shorten. At last year’s awards, the movement across the four major categories varied.

On occasion, betters will figure out who will win relatively early on.

Betting Markets Ossoff

The favourite throughout, Roma opened at 2.010 for Best Picture and closed at 1.433, whereas eventual winner Green Book opened at 4.830 and closed at 3.420. While plenty of bettors thought Roma would win, it was still pretty close between the two films and the drop in Green Book’s odds highlights that was certainly considered a dark horse by many.

Rami Malek and Christian Bale opened at virtually identical odds to win Best Actor when the nominations were announced, starting at 2.350 and 2.390 respectively. However, the Bohemian Rhapsody star and winner Malek closed at 1.115 whereas Vice’s Bale drifted to 5.530, suggesting that bettors figured out rather quickly that Malek would win.

The most notable surprise was in the Best Actress category, won by Olivia Colman for The Favourite. She opened at 4.720 and closed at 6.890, whereas consistent and overwhelming favourite Glenn Close started at 1.556 and finished at 1.112. Bettors were clearly convinced that the latter would take the gong, but she was pipped by Colman in the biggest shock of the night.

Meanwhile, Best Director winner Alfonso Cuaron opened at 1.101 and closed at 1.067, indicating that it was pretty clear to everyone that the man behind Roma would take the prize.

Which organisation has the highest predicting rate?

Even before the month of build-up to the Oscars, there is plenty of information out there for bettors to utilise in order to narrow their searches for an eventual winner. Award ceremonies from other organisations go a long way towards predicting Oscar success.

The Golden Globes, Critics' Choice and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards have proven particularly adept, with their respective memberships often overlapping with the Academy.

With 19 correct picks in the last 25 years, the Critics' Choice Awards are largely reliable at predicting the Best Director winner at the Oscars.

Cumulatively, the three organisations combine to accurately foresee winners in the acting categories over 70% of the time, while the Globes and Critics' Choice have a success rate of more than 60% for the Best Picture award.

The Critics' Choice are particularly adept at predicting the Best Director, with 19 of the 25 such recipients (76%) going on to win the Oscar as well. Clearly, while a bet should not be made based on this information alone, these are strong indicators on which to build a case.

Notably, all three of the aforementioned other major awards have selected the same winners this year for the four primary acting categories. Joaquin Phoenix won Best Actor for Joker, Judy's Renee Zellweger collected Best Actress, Brad Pitt was Best Supporting Actor for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Laura Dern picked up Best Supporting Actress for Marriage Story.

Suitably, these four stars of the silver screen are the overwhelming favourites for their respective category at this year's Oscars.

The previous three Best Director winners also took the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice awards beforehand, something favourite Sam Mendes also achieved this year.

Keeping an eye on the talking heads

One last key to following the progress of Oscar markets is listening to talking heads. It’s human to want opinions to be heard and to earn expert status through their expression, and the Hollywood community is a tightly knit one whose members enjoy access to plenty of information that can prove useful.

The most notable instance where this phenomenon was particularly helpful was Birdman and its director Alejandro G. Inarritu's infamous ascent from long shots to favourites (and eventual winners) for Best Picture and Best Director respectively in 2015.

While the film missed out on gongs from both the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards, there was enough hype surrounding the film to project it to victory over presumptive winner Boyhood. Simply, the critics who favoured Birdman talked it up to such an extent that the betting public realised the winds of change.

The overriding question for bettors is whether they can get their predictions in quickly enough to get good value.

Do you think you can see the winners coming? If you’re up to the challenge, place your bets as early on as possible with the best Oscars odds at Pinnacle.

Oscar Betting Keys and Tips

Betting Markets Oscars Odds

Betting the Oscars is an exercise in due diligence and knowing where to turn to for the best in entertainment odds is key. Entertainment betting may be void of number crunching that comes with sports betting, but it nevertheless requires due diligence. Staying abreast of up-to-date news and narratives and understanding historical trends will help pop culture enthusiasts to better handicap their entertainment picks. Of which the Oscars represents the most high-profile betting event in a calendar year.

So, let’s get down to it and begin with the nitty-gritty: Oscar betting tips. After which, we’ll cover the latest developments on the 2021 Oscar trail and where bettors can bet the Oscars.

1. Know How Voting Works

Understanding the inner machinations of the Oscars – how the voting works – will help bettors to make informed entertainment picks and better predict how the coveted golden man is handed out.

By the latest count, the Oscars has 8,469 members that are divided into 17 branches. Each branch nominates for its own category – e.g., actors nominate actors in the four categories, directors nominate directors…etc. Everyone gets to nominate best picture and for the final vote all branches vote on every award.

The merits of nominating and voting peers within an industry underscores the Oscars’ voting system. In exclusivity, there is knowledge and familiarity that makes sense. However, like many similar such systems trapped in exclusivity, an inherent flaw of subjectivity exists. Bias. Personal preference, lack of objectivity…so on. Therefore, it’s fair to assume, voting likely is skewed by how well-liked and well respected (or not) an actor or director is; how polarising a film subject is.

When handicapping best actor award or best supporting actor or best director, one should keep in mind these factors that might well influence a decision.

2. Winning Begets Winning

The road to the Oscars is littered with other awards ceremonies, including the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. A good indicator for bettors looking to place wagers on the Oscars is the performance of contenders in the preceding events. It’s not unusual to see an actor pick up momentum with each passing red carpet event to improve their odds to win the Oscars or flat out emerge as a top favourite in Oscar betting markets.

3. Timely Subjects Matter

Oscar betting trends point to celebration of historical and contemporary issues. Giving the nod to actors in roles that explore social issue, challenge accepted norms or depict leading historical figures. Similarly, films that tick the right boxes with timely subjects that matter (be they fictional or true stories) or films that reprise watershed historical events typically do well.

4. Hype and Status

More often than not, the more well known an actor is the better the chance of said actor or film featuring said actor has of winning. Of course, this doesn’t mean there aren’t surprises at the Oscars… Andy Brody, Cuba Gooding Jr., Brenda Fricker are just a few names of Oscar winners that have fallen off the radar. Predicting such upsets in Oscar betting though is no mean trick.

2020 Oscar Betting Odds

Oscars 2021 Delay Due to Coronavirus

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science (AMPAS) went to press a few weeks ago with its decision to delay the 2021 Oscars, pushing back the star-studded ceremony from February 28 to April 25 in an abundance of caution due to the ongoing public health crisis. The news ended weeks upon weeks of speculation that go back to mid-May when the first wind of a possible delay to the 93^rd Annual Academy Awards made the rounds of Hollywood insiders.

In line with the Oscar changes, the calendar of award ceremonies has adjusted in kind. For instance, Golden Globes were pushed back to 28 February and the BAFTAs were pushed back from 14 February to 11 April.

To accommodate the Oscars’ new date, AMPAS extended the window of eligibility from December 31 to February 28 – meaning films released between January 1st, 2020 and February 28th, 2021 will be eligible.

Moreover, bearing in mind the challenges presented during this unprecedented time, qualification rules were relaxed as well to include otherwise-qualified movies that were forced to skip cinema release dates during lockdown and turn to streaming services instead.

What isn’t as yet known – perhaps, the most important titbit – is how the Oscars will be presented. Will it be a virtual affair? Zoom Oscars? Or will it go ahead with traditional pomp and ceremony? It’s impossible to know for certain and, equally, hard to imagine a return to normalcy, as yet.

Where to Bet on the Oscars

Many of the best sportsbooks serve up Oscar odds for bettors to sink their teeth into, including Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).

Odds on the Oscars normally are found in a dedicated section for entertainment betting. Over and above odds on the Oscars, Bovada usually will serve up a slew of fun prop specials to with most entertainment betting events. There’s something for everyone, as the saying goes.

Betting Markets Oscars Today